Jeremy Werner writes in the Telegraph, to predict that high oil prices are here to stay might seem the height of foolishness, for it runs counter to all historical experience, where oil price shocks of the type we are experiencing today are invariably self-correcting.
But there are two big differences this time around—the climate change agenda and sanctions against Russia for its murderous assault on Ukraine.
Even before the Russian invasion, it was obvious that climate change goals, which began to kick in with ever increasing intensity from around 2017 onwards, were going to result in a major SUPPLY PROBLEM.
Despite continued reliance on hydrocarbons for virtually all our creature comforts, here was an industry said already to be obsolete, and therefore essentially uninvestable.
Investment in E&P progressively slowed, and then ground to a virtual standstill when the pandemic hit.
It was seemingly the end of the line for Big Oil. You are no longer needed, the oil companies were firmly told; your reserves of oil and gas will be left stranded with no one to sell to, and they are therefore not worth developing.
Institutional investors, with ESG demands to answer to, piled in on top.
But then enter stage left the villainous Putin. Turns out we are going to need those big bad oil companies after all, and maybe even the pariah fuel of COAL.
Now, by seeking to ban Russian oil and gas, Europe has all but removed one of the world’s biggest suppliers from the mix, hugely compounding the capacity shortages that became apparent as economies bounced back from the enforced closures of the pandemic.
The result is a kind of bifurcation in previously global oil and gas markets, with Western countries forced to seek pricey alternatives to Russian hydrocarbons, but less principled countries such as China and India able to access the Russian product at what by today’s standards look like bargain basement prices.
“Where once these nations enjoyed the competitive advantage of cheap labour, these countries now gain the additional benefit of relatively cheap oil and gas”
As long as Russia remains out of the action, it’s going to take a long time for Western supply and demand to come back into balance, even with the dampening effects on demand of a recession.
“That means, as long as the war persists, energy prices are going to remain destructively high, at least for the West”
The consensus designation of oil and gas as “uninvestible” by the seers and sayers of Wall Street and Canary Wharf just might prove to be the biggest, and most expensive, swing and miss any of us will witness in our lifetimes.
“Still, we doubt woke investors have learned much, as the workings of the energy sector remain a giant mystery to most”
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"The AI Whisperer"
Calum Chace is the best-selling author of four books on AI, and a sought-after keynote. He’s a respected commentator on AI and its likely future impact on individuals, societies, and economies.
After 30 years of working with organizations such as the BBC, BP and KPMG during which he was a marketer, a strategist, and a CEO, he switched career gears to focus on one of his most intense interests: AI. Calum Chace writes both fiction and non-fiction books on the possibilities and problems of increase use and reliance upon machines that are capable to learn like humans. In his latest book published in 2017, “Artificial Intelligence and the Two Singularities”, Calum argues that through the course of this century, the exponential growth in the capability of AI is likely to bring about two ‘singularities,’ or points at which conditions are so extreme that the normal rules breakdown.
UK's Leading AI Company
Dr Hulme founded London’s largest private pure AI consultancy, whose 100+ team of experts use innovative AI techniques to solve hard problems for multinationals around the world. His company provides a unique algorithmic technology professional services to solve industry-specific optimisation problems.
He is the Director of UCL’s Business Analytics MSc, applying AI to solve business, governmental and social problems. He is passionate about how technology can be used to govern organisations and bring positive social impact. Hulme’s work outlines a framework for understanding data-driven decision making. Dr Daniel Hulme has advisory and executive positions across companies and governments. He holds an international Kauffman Global Entrepreneur Scholarship and actively promotes purposeful decision making. He is a popular speaker for Google and TEDx, and is a faculty member of Singularity University.
CEO @ Digital Transformation Leaders
Digital Transformation Leadership AI & Innovation Executive Advisor (MIT SLOAN Certified)
Mrs. Vincent has over two decades of international experience leading and implementing digital transformation for Fortune and large organizations. Some of the Fortune Companies Nadia has helped transform include Atos Worldline Belgium, Euroclear Belgium & UK, SWIFT, BNP Paribas, ING Bank, Rabbo Bank, ABN-AMRO, Carrefour Group, Electrabel -Engie - GDF, Ikea, Arcelor Mittal and Total. She has been a guest speaker and influencer on some top Technology industry leaders' platforms and shows, including Microsoft, SAP, PMI, and Engati.
She has led and implemented many businesses and IT transformation initiatives in various industries internationally. She is an awarded PMI global trainer.
Information Technology Executive, CIO
Massachusetts Attorney General’s Office, Burlington, Massachusetts, United States
Kevin Coluchi is the Chief Information Officer of the Massachusetts Attorney General’s Office. He has over 25 years of experience in delivering strategies to companies to help them achieve their goals. His career demonstrates success in building and leading high-performing teams that respond to digital transformation to achieve the collective goal of the organizations. His remarkable skills in managing modern software development projects, ability to think to solve challenging problems and responding to digital transformation have drawn global attention.
Chief Digital Officer at T-Mobile
Greater Seattle Area, United States
Marcus East is the Chief Digital Officer at T-Mobile. He has nearly 30 years of experience as a product and technology leader. He worked in some of the world’s leading brands, including Apple, Comic Relief, Google, IBM, Marks and Spencer, National Geographic, and now T-Mobile.
He has a bachelor’s degree in Management & IT from the London Guildhall University and a master’s in Management from the University of Cambridge. He is also a Fellow of the British Computer Society.
Strategic Advisor, CIO, Digital Transformation Expert, Featured Speaker, Teacher, Writer
Peter Weis has over 20 years of experience as a CIO. He is currently working as Global CIO of Matson, a $3B publicly-traded logistics, transportation, and supply chain company. Under his leadership, Mastson has successfully rebuilt its IT infrastructure and transformed it into a cloud computing model. That means, Maston, a 138-year-old company, has transformed its global business 100% in the cloud.
He holds an M.B.A. with Honors from the Wharton School and a Bachelor’s degree from the Haas School of Business.
CIO Strategic Advisor at AVOA
Los Angeles Metropolitan Area, United States
Tim Crawford holds an MBA in International Business with Honors from Golden Gate University Ageno School of Business and a Bachelor of Science degree in Computer Information Systems from Golden Gate University. He is one of the most influential CIOs and is regularly quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, SiliconAngle, and TechTarget.
Tim wors as CIO Strategic Advisor at AVOA. He is an executive coach and advises large global enterprise organizations of different sectors: financial services, healthcare, major airlines, and high-tech.
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